Merike Kukk coauthored Baltic Household Outlook, published by SEB Group
Merike Kukk, a research scientist at Department of Finance and Economics of TUT teaching a course of macroeconomics in the MFEA programme, coauthored Baltic Household Outlook, published by SEB Group, an international banking corporation headquartered in Stockholm.
The main conclusions of the report are:
- Job creation continues; unemployment has declined to the lowest level since 2008.
- In the first half of 2013 real wage growth was positive in all Baltic countries.
- Net wage growth and pension increase will boost households’ purchasing powernext year.
- Household consumption contributes to GDP most in Lithuania, by 65 per cent, and the least in Estonia, by 51 per cent. In Latvia the share of household consumption from GDP is 63 per cent.
- Lithuania exhibits the strongest household consumption prospects as the consumption is increasing. In Latvia and Estonia the household consumption growth remains on the current levels
- Downward trend in the housing credit market is halting in Estonia and Lithuania but continuing in Latvia. The volumes of new loans have increased the most in Latvia, in the first half of 2013 by 25 per cent compared to that of a year ago, but it does not outweigh the repayments and write-offs of the current loans.
- In Latvia and Estonia financial assets exceeded financial liabilities for the first time. In Lithuania assets growth slowed down.
- Low interest rates on deposits induce to find alternative forms of saving.
- Irrespective of attractiveness of alternative savings, traditional savings methods will purevail
The analysts from SEB (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) project that this year Latvia and Lithuania remained the fastest-growing economies in the European Union, while Estonia’s economic growth halted during the first half of 2013. Despite a temporary stagnation in Estonia’s economy, household finances continue to improve in all Baltic countries.
Detailed report can be obtained from: http://www.seb.ee/sites/default/files/web/files/uudised/BHO2013_okt.pdf